EU Gambling Levy Forecast Falls Short of Early Expectations

New Estimate Comes in Much Lower

The European Commission has released its first estimate for a proposed EU-wide gambling levy. Officials believe the measure could raise about €13.3bn between 2028 and 2034. The plan would require online gambling operators to pay a 3% charge on gross gaming revenue.

Money raised from the levy would go directly into the EU budget. The estimate equals around €1.9bn each year. However, the figure is much lower than expected. Earlier discussions suggested the levy could raise about €28bn during the same period.

Supporters still see the levy as a useful source of funding. Critics say the lower forecast may weaken the case for the proposal.

Part of the EU Budget Plans

The gambling levy is one of several ideas being reviewed for the EU budget covering 2028 to 2034. The Commission wants to find new ways to raise money. Officials say some funding could come from industry levies instead of higher contributions from member states.

Several proposals are under review:

• Electronic waste levy — estimated to raise €15bn

• Gambling levy — estimated to raise €13.3bn

• Tobacco tax changes — estimated to raise €11.2bn

Gambling Industry Raises Concerns

The gambling sector has reacted negatively to the proposal. The European Gaming and Betting Association has opposed the idea since it first appeared. In April, the group called the levy “fundamentally unworkable.”

Industry leaders say gambling rules differ across Europe. Because each country uses its own system, they argue a single EU levy could be difficult to manage. According to its position, extra taxes could increase pressure on licensed operators — especially in markets where gambling taxes are already high.

The association believes illegal casinos could benefit if licensed companies face higher costs and tighter margins.

Debate Likely to Continue

Commission estimates show the levy could still raise billions of euros. Yet the latest forecast appears much lower than the original figure discussed earlier this year. Hence, lawmakers now face a difficult task — balancing new revenue goals with concerns from the industry.