Gibraltar licenses first prediction market operator

A Fast-tracked License Under Old Rules

Gibraltar issued the license to Predict Street Ltd on March 26. The approval came under the 2005 Gambling Act — not the new law still pending. Officials described the timing as unusually fast — even by local standards. It signals urgency.

According to Nigel Feetham, the sector could expand in the coming years. He told parliament that prediction markets may become a key growth area.

A New Player With Global Ambitions

Predict Street appears to be moving quickly — with a launch set for April 9. Its website shows a countdown tied to the FIFA World Cup 2026. The company claims a link to the global event — though details remain limited. That claim may attract attention.

Behind the scenes, the business runs on support from ADI Chain. This adds a layer of technology that could shape how users interact with markets. Beyond branding, the company enters a space still unclear across Europe.

Pressure From the UK Shapes Strategy

Recent tax changes in the UK have forced Gibraltar to rethink its approach — and quickly. New duties on remote gaming and betting may hit operators hard. Some estimates suggest tax exposure could rise close to full revenue levels. That risk looms large.

Gibraltar’s economy relies heavily on gaming — with about 3,500 jobs linked directly. The sector also provides roughly one-third of public income.

Europe Remains Divided on Prediction Markets

While Gibraltar moves ahead, other markets show caution — or outright resistance. Countries like the Netherlands and France restrict similar services under current laws. In some cases, authorities treat prediction markets as either gambling or finance tools. That creates legal tension.

Operators such as Polymarket have faced blocks across parts of Europe. Still, demand appears steady despite official limits. Meanwhile, Silvio Schembri said Malta is exploring its own framework. He noted the need for clear rules before any rollout begins. Key takeaways:

• Gibraltar issued its first prediction markets license on March 26

• Predict Street plans a launch tied to a major football event

• UK tax changes are pushing regulatory shifts in Gibraltar

• European markets remain split on legality and oversight

A Careful Step Into Uncertain Territory

Gibraltar’s move reflects both opportunity and risk — in equal measure. The government appears willing to act fast to protect its core industry.

Yet the wider market remains unsettled — and rules may change quickly. For now, the license marks a clear shift. What comes next could define the sector’s future in Europe.