Blackjack Odds and Probability

Article by : Max Bet Jun 10, 2022

Many novice gamblers who first came to the land-based gambling establishment or decided to register at an online casino think that gambling skills are not essential and it all depends on luck. In a sense, this statement is true. Still, at the same time, experienced players for more than a century proved that with a competent approach to the process and the analysis of the chances of falling out of a particular combination, they can count on the resulting profits. After all, it is not for nothing that casinos determine their advantage for each game. For example, blackjack house edge does not exceed, on average, one percent, so it is not surprising that this card game has long been considered one of the most popular in the world. Of course, this figure can vary somewhat depending on the commission of the gambling establishment, as well as unique rules. Why should every player pay attention to the statistical indicators and push them in the process of betting? Here are some of the main reasons:

  1. Based on the nominal advantage of the casino, the player can begin to form his algorithm of action, which will increase his chance of the final profit.
  2. Almost every combination and type of bet developed a methodology for betting. Consequently, with experience, gamblers will be able to decide what strategy should be used in one case or another.
  3. Studying the odds of winning in blackjack, the player will be able to determine in the course of the round what action to perform and what option to use. For example, the minimum risk for the client casino is observed in the case when the dealer’s open card has a value of 4, 5, or 6.
  4. Understanding the odds by which the calculation of bets, the player can more intelligently control your bank.
  5. Also, the gambler can feel more confident if he has a lot of options for betting on any combination received.

The game itself is named after the combination where the player or dealer gets a hand of an ace and a ten. It is called “Natural Blackjack”. The calculation of such a bet is at an odds of 1.5. The table below shows the payout options for the player who receives this combination.

Player betPayout in case of “blackjack” rolls
11,5
23
34,5
1015
3045
5075
100150
300450
500750

Interestingly, in the case of blackjack from the dealer, all players lose, regardless of their combination. The exceptions are those players who also got that particular combination. They get their money back, and the result is considered a draw.

Player’s Odds Table

It is also worth considering the blackjack odds table, which analyzes the player’s probability of bankruptcy if he receives another card based on the first two. This table is extremely important for those players who cannot decide this or that situation:

The resulting combination after dealing two cardsProbability of losing a player (%)
21100
2092
1985
1877
1769
1662
1558
1456
1339
1231
11 and less0

Dealer’s Odds Table

Blackjack odds cards for the dealer are slightly different. The table with the probability of the dealer’s overkill is shown below:

Dealer cardProbability of overshoot (%)
Ace17
235
337
440
542
642
726
824
923
1023

Odds of Winning Blackjack

The Blackjack probability chart is a vital tool to help the player make the best decision in any given situation. The table above shows the percentage probability of the dealer’s loss, based on the available card, which is seen by all participants of the game table. The first column shows the open card, the second the probability of the dealer’s loss, and the third the nominal advantage of the player:

Open card after dealing two cards to the dealerProbability that the dealer will lose (%)Nominal player advantage (%)
235,309,8
337,5613,4
440,2818,0
542,8923,2
642,0823,9
725,9914,3
823,865,4
923,34-4,3
1021,43-16,9
J21,43-16,9
Q21,43-16,9
K21,43-16,9
A11,65-16,0

Thus, we can see that the player has an advantage if the dealer’s open card is between 2 and 8. It becomes most tangible if the available card is a value between 4 and 6. Consequently, the decision to use additional options is based on this table with the probability.

Also, the chances of the casino or the player the final success depends on the number of decks used. The more there are, the more likely the gambling establishment will make a profit. Below is general information on the number of decks that are most commonly used in gambling establishments.

The number of decks used by casinos to play blackjackCasino advantage over customers (%)
10,04
20,42
40,61
60,67
80,70

Consequently, we can conclude that the player should choose a casino where all the cards are drawn from the same deck. What is the advantage of the gambler in this situation? He has a real opportunity to count the cards and decide for himself with what probability he can make a profit. The more decks, the more options for a particular card. For example, in one deck, there are only 4 aces, while in 8 tiers, their number would increase to 32.

Blackjack odds of winning also depend on what two cards will fall to the player. After all, depending on the cards the casino customer may begin to apply a particular gambling strategy. The percentage probability of falling out combinations in a given range are:

The combination of the first two cards received by a playerProbability of falling out of this range of cards (%)
Blackjack (21)4,8
Tough Hand (17-20)30
Combinations with the ability to take an additional card (2-16)38,7
Without overdraw26,5

Also, it is necessary to consider the player’s chances in the case of surrendering a particular card. It should be noted that any such case directly affects the potential success of the gambler. If the card removed from the deck has a small face value, it positively affects the player’s chance. If a card with an image or an ace is removed, the player’s wagers are reduced. All possible options are discussed in more detail in the table:

The card that was removed from the deckInfluence on the player’s chance of making a profit
20,40
30,43
40,52
50,67
60,45
70,30
80,01
9-0,15
10-0,51
J-0,51
Q-0,51
K-0,51
A-0,59

For the player to be able to decide on further actions in a certain situation, he needs to understand with what probability the dealer receives a particular final hand:

Dealer’s final handProbability of this or that combination falling out (%)
Natural Blackjack (assembled from two cards)4,82
The combination of “21”, collected from three or more cards7,36
2017,58
1913,48
1813,81
1714,58
No overdraw (less than 21)71,63
Overdraw (more than 21)28,37

Consequently, if a player wants to understand blackjack odds, he must study all the tables with probabilities. Thus, together with the use of strategies, the gambler will significantly increase his chances of success. After all, in this way, he will have possible options for action in any combination obtained.

Use Blackjack Odds to Win

As mentioned above, the odds of getting a particular combination in blackjack can directly affect the player’s actions. Many gambling strategies, explicitly created for the rules of the most popular card game, consist of specific actions when various combinations fall. For example, we can give a basic strategy that has been popular since 1962. It developed a table where the author advises taking specific actions in the context of all available cards (two cards received by the player and one received by the dealer). Of course, the analytical approach to the process does not guarantee success for the gambler but dramatically increases his chances. This is confirmed by statistics showing that the lion’s share of beginners lose money because they bet randomly without reference to a particular strategy.

Blackjack payout

Approximate information about the odds of winning blackjack can also be obtained based on the odds offered by the gambling establishment. For example, with blackjack, the player receives a payout of 3:2. That is, at a rate of 10 USD, the player will receive a profit of 5 USD. If, however, it will have the advantage of a victory over the dealer, the rate will be calculated as 2 to 1. Otherwise, the money put in by the player will be canceled, and he will have to wait for a new round to try his luck again.

Blackjack House Edge

The vast majority of gamblers prefer this card game because blackjack odds for success are close to the maximum. However, at the same time need to take into account the fact that the final figure on the advantage of the house affects the rules of a gambling establishment. For example, the dealer may take an additional card, but not in all cases. If such an option is available, the company’s advantage over the player decreases by about 0.2%. The casino gets about 1 USD for every 100 USD bet by the players. This is a perfect figure. For example, let’s talk about American roulette. The advantage of the system to the player increases up to 5.3%, and in the case of most video slots, this figure can even exceed 10%.

FAQ

Is blackjack skill or luck?

Many players believe that success in the blackjack game is directly related to luck. If a casino customer feels confident, then winning combinations fall to him more often. On the other hand, by comparing blackjack with blackjack, the gambler can influence the process, for instance, by deciding whether to draw another card or to divide the two received cards into two hands. Moreover, if you learn to calculate the probability based on the information obtained, the player can increase the probability of betting at a distance.

Why does blackjack have the best odds?

This game has the best chance of success for the player because there is a direct interaction between the dealer and the client. The approximate casino advantage here is 0.5%, which is much less than in other popular gambling areas. This figure may vary slightly depending on the characteristics of the casino. Consequently, if the gambler can choose the most appropriate strategies and control his gamble, the chances of his final profit will be high.

What are the odds if you play perfectly?

Blackjack’s probability of success, of course, differs depending on skills. Many players are confident that they have a professional approach to the process; therefore, the probability of losing is reduced to zero. Of course, this is far from a card game where everything depends on luck. Therefore, we can say that if a player understands all the nuances, he can reduce the nominal casino advantage in his specific case.

What is the payout in blackjack?

Odds in blackjack are quite high because most betting options are equal, which is calculated as 2 to 1. In this case, if, as a result of receiving two cards, the player fell “blackjack” (A and 10), he automatically wins and receives a payment of 3 to 2. However, there is an exception to the rules because if the dealer also got this combination, a draw is declared, and all players at the table who got the “blackjack” get their money back. In turn, the other players automatically lose.

What are the bust cards in blackjack?

Thanks to the intuitive rules, the player can quickly understand the nuances of blackjack. In this card game, if the dealer or the player has a combination of more than 21, it is considered an overshoot. In this case, the participants automatically lose. Speaking about the dealer’s open card, which can be seen by every participant at the table, the most probable cards for further overcards are 5, 6, or 4.

Max Bet

Chief Editor

My name is Max, and my passion is online slot machines! I've been working in iGaming for 4 years now, and I just can't stop. I'm working on online slot reviews for SlotsUp primarily. If there would be the most challenging online slot machines quiz, I will beat it with ease.

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